Singapore GIC: Risk Of Economic Stagnation, Then Inflation
SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- The world faces the risk of economic stagnation as it pulls out of steep economic downturn, but this could be followed by inflation if policymakers aren't careful, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund said Saturday.
"We appear to have avoided a global depression and are now in a global recovery," which will extend into next year, Tony Tan, deputy chairman of Government of Singapore Investment Corp., told a panel during the annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Singapore.
"I expect higher stagnation risk in the medium term to be followed by higher inflation risk after that," Tan said.
"Over the next one to three years, weak growth and excess capacity will be strongly disinflationary," he said. "However, beyond that, over the next five to 10 years, policy errors or political pressure could lead central banks to accommodate higher inflation."
Countries that have racked up little debt, especially in Asia and parts of Latin America, will recover strongly and "in the short term, the bounce could surprise on the upside," Tan said. But activity in "over-leveraged developed economies," especially consumption in the U.S. and U.K., will likely not be as robust as in previous recoveries, he said.
More broadly, "Over the next decade, it looks like economic, political and market risks are going to be higher than the last 20 years before the crisis," Tan said.
"Over time the rise of (emerging markets)--especially China, India and Russia--could, together with competition for limited natural resources, lead to higher geopolitical risks," he said.
GIC is the world's fourth-largest sovereign wealth fund in terms of money managed, according to Deutsche Bank
-By P.R. Venkat, Dow Jones Newswires; +65 64154 152; venkat.pr@dowjones.com
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Brazilian Real Ends Losing Streak on Global Optimism
After speculations suggesting that the Brazilian currency will suffer further interventions from the national central bank to stop is rally, the real had a negative performance this week that only ended today after global optimism rose attractiveness for assets in emergent markets.
The Brazilian real managed to rise more than 1 percent versus the U.S. before the end of today’s session as positive data in Europe and Asia forced up demand for commodities and rose risk appetite, bringing investors to inject capital in Brazil despite speculations that further measures to stop the currency’s rally will be taken.
USD/BRL closed at 1.7269 from an opening rate of 1.7345.
Mexico's Stocks End Higher, Peso Gains Ahead Of Long Weekend
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexico's stocks closed higher Friday ahead of a long weekend, rising for the eighth session in the past nine as U.S. equities gained with the help of positive consumer stocks.
The local stock market's IPC index of leading issues rose 0.8%, or 242.24 points, to 31002.09, resuming an upward path after a brief respite the previous session that pulled the index off a 17-month high. Volume was a moderate 141.1 million shares worth 4.04 billion pesos ($310 million).
Retailer Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY, WALMEX.MX) V shares rose 2.8% to MXN51.56, Soriana (SORIANA.MX) B shares rose 0.5% to MXN32.45, and Comercial Mexicana (COMERCI.MX) UBC shares jumped 10% to MXN11.24.
Comercial Mexicana, which is in the process of negotiating a debt restructuring with derivatives counterparties and other creditors, attributed the gains to "market conditions" in a filing with the exchange.
The peso strengthened against the dollar and was quoted closing in Mexico City at MXN13.0495, compared with MXN13.1915 at Thursday's close and MXN13.4175 a week ago.
A local currency trader said the weaker dollar and corporate peso demand for tax payments due next Tuesday contributed to the currency's gains.
Mexican markets will be closed Monday for the Revolution Day holiday.
Expectations that Congress will wrap up the spending side of the 2010 budget at the weekend also helped the peso, the trader added.
Mexico's budget process has injected volatility into the exchange market as participants weigh the possibility of one or more ratings agencies downgrading the country's sovereign credit rating, without putting its investment grade at risk.
Both Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings have a negative outlook for Mexico, and could make a decision once the budget is completed. Most of the concern in the market was over the revenue side of the budget, which was wrapped up at the end of October with Congress improving a number of tax increases.
The currency trader said Mexican interest rates, while low, still allow for some carry trade since they are higher than those in the U.S.
The yield on 20-year government bonds due 2029 slipped 2 basis points to 8.42%, and the yield on bonds maturing in 2018 was flat at 7.86%.
BBVA Bancomer said in a report that uncertainty about the sovereign rating is holding the peso back from making further gains, generating some caution in inflows, although recent data show foreign investors continue to add local bonds to their positions.
The local stock market's IPC index of leading issues rose 0.8%, or 242.24 points, to 31002.09, resuming an upward path after a brief respite the previous session that pulled the index off a 17-month high. Volume was a moderate 141.1 million shares worth 4.04 billion pesos ($310 million).
Retailer Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY, WALMEX.MX) V shares rose 2.8% to MXN51.56, Soriana (SORIANA.MX) B shares rose 0.5% to MXN32.45, and Comercial Mexicana (COMERCI.MX) UBC shares jumped 10% to MXN11.24.
Comercial Mexicana, which is in the process of negotiating a debt restructuring with derivatives counterparties and other creditors, attributed the gains to "market conditions" in a filing with the exchange.
The peso strengthened against the dollar and was quoted closing in Mexico City at MXN13.0495, compared with MXN13.1915 at Thursday's close and MXN13.4175 a week ago.
A local currency trader said the weaker dollar and corporate peso demand for tax payments due next Tuesday contributed to the currency's gains.
Mexican markets will be closed Monday for the Revolution Day holiday.
Expectations that Congress will wrap up the spending side of the 2010 budget at the weekend also helped the peso, the trader added.
Mexico's budget process has injected volatility into the exchange market as participants weigh the possibility of one or more ratings agencies downgrading the country's sovereign credit rating, without putting its investment grade at risk.
Both Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings have a negative outlook for Mexico, and could make a decision once the budget is completed. Most of the concern in the market was over the revenue side of the budget, which was wrapped up at the end of October with Congress improving a number of tax increases.
The currency trader said Mexican interest rates, while low, still allow for some carry trade since they are higher than those in the U.S.
The yield on 20-year government bonds due 2029 slipped 2 basis points to 8.42%, and the yield on bonds maturing in 2018 was flat at 7.86%.
BBVA Bancomer said in a report that uncertainty about the sovereign rating is holding the peso back from making further gains, generating some caution in inflows, although recent data show foreign investors continue to add local bonds to their positions.
Chilean Peso Posts Biggest Gains Since June
The Chilean peso had the highest weekly rise in 5 months after the national central bank did not announce measures to halt the currency’s rally, leaving behind speculations that a government intervention will shun investors from the South American nation.
After a Chilean government interest rate policy statement that did not mention that a strong peso could jeopardize the economic recovery in the country, the Chilean currency managed to extend its gains to higher levels making this week to be the sharpest 5 day winning streak since June.
USD/CLP closed the week at 502.05 from an opening rate in Friday of 507.45.
British Pound High on Giant Airlines Fusion
The British pound had an excellent performance in the beginning of this Friday’s session as talks that the biggest airline in the country will merge another European giant in the sector brought optimism to London equities markets making the pound to benefit of a positive scenario.
After British Airways Plc and Ibreas Lines Aereas de Espana SA, two of the biggest airlines in Europe decided to merge, the pound headed to a third straight winning week versus the U.S. dollar and gained terrain versus the euro, which according to some speculations could reach parity with the pound in the
The economic recovery in Britain is finally affecting markets sentiment, the fusion of 2 giant airline groups is an evidence that other merges can follow as long as the economy continues to grow, which is definitely favorable not only for the British currency, but also stocks in London, which have been last attractive than stocks in other European economic centers like Paris or Frankfurt.
EUR/GBP traded at 0.8915 as of 13:27 GMT from a previous rate of 0.9017 in the intraday comparison. GBP/USD traded at 1.6682 from 1.6545 yesterday.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Swedish September Retail Sales +0.2% On Month
Swedish September Retail Sales +0.2% On Month
The following is a press release from Statistiska Centralbyran, or SCB, the Swedish central government authority for official statistics.
STOCKHOLM--Retail trade sales increased by 0.2% in September compared to August, seasonally adjusted figures. Compared to September 2008, the retail trade sales increased by 2.7%.
Retail trade for mostly food increased 2.7% compared to September 2008 and retail trade for mostly durables increased by 2.9%.
Statistics Sweden Web site: www.scb.se
The following is a press release from Statistiska Centralbyran, or SCB, the Swedish central government authority for official statistics.
STOCKHOLM--Retail trade sales increased by 0.2% in September compared to August, seasonally adjusted figures. Compared to September 2008, the retail trade sales increased by 2.7%.
Retail trade for mostly food increased 2.7% compared to September 2008 and retail trade for mostly durables increased by 2.9%.
Statistics Sweden Web site: www.scb.se
DATA SNAP: Spain Sep Retail Sales -3.4% On Yr Vs -4% In Aug
MADRID (Dow Jones)--Spanish retail sales continued to fall in September, Spain's National Statistics Institute said Wednesday, as high unemployment weighs on consumer spending.
Spanish retail sales fell 3.4% on the year earlier in September after falling by 4% on the year in August and by 4.6% on the year in July, the INE said in a statement.
In calendar-adjusted terms, retail sales also fell by 3.4% in September.
Spanish consumer spending has been undermined by rapidly rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence as the country's ailing construction industry sheds hundreds of thousands of jobs.
INE Web site: www.ine.es
-By Jonathan House, Dow Jones Newswires; +34 91 395 8121; jonathan.house@dowjones.com
Spanish retail sales fell 3.4% on the year earlier in September after falling by 4% on the year in August and by 4.6% on the year in July, the INE said in a statement.
In calendar-adjusted terms, retail sales also fell by 3.4% in September.
Spanish consumer spending has been undermined by rapidly rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence as the country's ailing construction industry sheds hundreds of thousands of jobs.
INE Web site: www.ine.es
-By Jonathan House, Dow Jones Newswires; +34 91 395 8121; jonathan.house@dowjones.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
