Argentina Sep Indus Output -10.5% On Yr, +1.1% On Mo - OJF

Argentina Sep Indus Output -10.5% On Yr, +1.1% On Mo - OJF

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's industrial output fell sharply in September on the year, indicating that the an economic recovery is still a ways off.

Industrial production fell 10.5% from the same month a year earlier but rose 1.1% on the month, the think tank Orlando J Ferreres & Asociados, or OJF, reported Friday.

Year-on-year output has now declined each month for the past year, according to OJF. That puts accumulated January through September output down 9.5% from a year earlier.

Still, September's increase in the month-on-month data was the third of its kind in a row, indicating that the industry's doldrums seem to have bottomed out.

OJF said results for the rest of the year will likely improve because they'll be compared with data from late 2008, when the global financial crisis was just starting to have an impact on Argentina.

Moreover, a solid recovery in Brazil, Argentina's top trade partner, as well as a "calmer financial situation," should help the sector through next year, OJF said.

The think tank's estimates coincide with other private sector estimates that indicate output has fallen sharply since the beginning of the global crisis.

But the data clash with official government figures that show only a minor slowdown in production.

The national statistics institute, Indec, will release official industrial output data on October 23.

Indec last reported that August output declined 1.7% on the year but was up 0.6% on the month.

Economists here routinely discard the reliability of official statistics, saying the data are tainted.

Government officials deny the charges.