Thursday, September 24, 2009

Forex: USD/CHF rises above 1.0300

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Greenback is rising further across the board as U.S. markets are extending losses. USD/CHF broke above 1.0300 and rose to 1.0310. The pair is now up for the day after the Swiss failed to hold gains and is 0.05% above today’s opening price. The next level to consider lies at 1.0325 and above at 1.0360. Dollar is accumulating an increase of more than 70 pips since the opening bell at Wall Street.

Against the Euro, the Franc is pulling back after EUR/CHF fell to 1.5080 posting a fresh 4-month low. In case the pair falls further it could attract the attention of the Swiss National Bank.

Forex: EUR/USD falls further and posts 1.4663 as fresh intra-day low

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Dollar is rising further across the board. EUR/USD broke below 1.4675 and fell to 1.4663, posting a fresh intra-day low. The next level to watch is at the 1.4645 and below at the 1.4600/10 zone (weekly lows). The pair is 0.15% below today’s opening price. The Euro failed to hold gains and lost them after the opening bell at Wall Street.

THE FASTBROKERS RESEARCH TEAM afirms: “For the downside, the EUR/USD has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with weekly lows and the psychological 1.45 level. Therefore, the EUR/USD has several lines of defense to the downside. Though the uptrend is intact, we are initiating a neutral outlook on the EUR/USD as we monitor the behavior of the Dollar and U.S. equities.”

EU Barroso: Economic, Financial Situation Still Fragile

EU Barroso: Economic, Financial Situation Still Fragile

BRUSSELS -(Dow Jones)- The financial system and the global economy remain fragile, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Thursday, warning that state support measures are still needed.

According to the text of a speech delivered on the sidelines of the Group of 20 industrialized and developing countries, Barroso said it is too soon for governments to withdraw fiscal stimulus spending and other efforts to foster economic recovery.

"We need to keep support measures in place, but be ready with an exit strategy," he said in the speech at the University of Pittsburgh.

Barroso said the G20 leaders, who are meeting Thursday and Friday in Pittsburgh, should agree to financial-market reforms, including an international agreement to rein-in pay and bonuses. Some European Union leaders want a pact to include strict pay caps for bankers, while the U.S. favors a less-severe approach.

U.S. markets turn negative; Dollar holds near session highs

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Wall Street erased early gains and now is holding in the negative side, near the lows of the day. The Dow Jones is losing 0.50% and the Nasdaq is falling further, 1.35% to 2102 units. Crude-oil is plunging for the second day in a row and falls almost 4%. Gold is testing levels below $1000 an oz. Dollar remains stable near the highs of the session.

Greenback is rising across the board and a break above today highs could send it even higher. EUR/USD has a support zone at 1.4670, if it breaks below; the pair could restart the downside rally. GBP/USD is oversold and approaching to the 1.6000 area. The Swiss Franc is still holding gains against the Dollar and also across the board. EUR/CHF fell to a 3-month low while GPB/CHF tumbled below 1.6500 posting the lowest price since April.

Dollar consolidates gains

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – Greenback has spent the last two hours consolidating gains after high yielding currencies surrender on an expected drop in August New Home Sales early in the U.S. Dollar has gain strongly against GBP and CAD particularly, in the first case, after BOE’s Governor King said currency weakness will help the economy recovery; earlier this week, BOC’s Governor also warned about CAD strength delaying economic performance.

Both Australian and New Zealand dollars remain slightly positive on the day, while against Euro, dollar is turning positive. Far from the day close, if greenback remains at current levels, seems likely will extend gains during next Asian session.

UPDATE: ECB, Others Extend Dollar,Swiss Franc Liquidity Operations

UPDATE: ECB, Others Extend Dollar,Swiss Franc Liquidity Operations

(Rewrites, adds detail.)


By Emese Bartha
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- The European Central Bank and other leading central banks Thursday said they will extend liquidity-providing operations through January 2010 to further cushion money markets.

The ECB, in agreement with other leading central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, decided to continue conducting U.S. dollar liquidity providing operations from October 2009 to January 2010, the ECB said Thursday.

The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank took similar action and the Bank of Japan also said it will continue dollar liquidity providing operations into January 2010.

Accordingly, the ECB will continue to conduct seven-day dollar repurchase operations against ECB-eligible collateral in the form of a fixed-rate tender with full allotment, the bank said.

However, "given the limited demand and the improved conditions in funding markets," the 84-day U.S. dollar tender will be discontinued after the operation to be held Oct. 6, it said.

The ECB retains the right to restart the 84-day tender "if needed" along with other dollar liquidity-providing operations that have been discontinued.

In agreement with the Swiss National Bank, the ECB will also continue to hold Swiss franc liquidity-providing swap operations until Jan. 31, 2010, "to support further improvements in the short-term Swiss franc funding markets." Separately, the SNB said it, the ECB and the Hungarian and Polish central banks will conduct euro-Swiss franc foreign exchange swaps with a term of seven days through January 2010.

The BOE said in a separate statement that it will "continue to keep its U.S. dollar repo operations under review in the light of market conditions."

Web site: www.ecb.int

DATA SNAP: French Unemployed Rises 0.7% MM In Aug To 2.553M

DATA SNAP: French Unemployed Rises 0.7% MM In Aug To 2.553M

By Gabriele Parussini
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


PARIS (Dow Jones)--The number of people seeking work in France rose by 0.7% last month against July, data from the state employment office showed Wednesday.

The number of job seekers in the euro zone's second-largest economy rose by 18,100 units to 2.553 million in August, the data showed.

On the year, the number of unemployed people seeking a job was up by 25.8%, the office said.

-By Gabriele Parussini, Dow Jones Newswires; +33 1 4017 1766; gabriele.parussini@dowjones.com;

DATA SNAP: French Unemployed Rises 0.7% MM In Aug To 2.553M

DATA SNAP: French Unemployed Rises 0.7% MM In Aug To 2.553M

By Gabriele Parussini
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


PARIS (Dow Jones)--The number of people seeking work in France rose by 0.7% last month against July, data from the state employment office showed Wednesday.

The number of job seekers in the euro zone's second-largest economy rose by 18,100 units to 2.553 million in August, the data showed.

On the year, the number of unemployed people seeking a job was up by 25.8%, the office said.

DATA SNAP: French Unemployed Rises 0.7% MM In Aug To 2.553M

DATA SNAP: French Unemployed Rises 0.7% MM In Aug To 2.553M

By Gabriele Parussini
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


PARIS (Dow Jones)--The number of people seeking work in France rose by 0.7% last month against July, data from the state employment office showed Wednesday.

The number of job seekers in the euro zone's second-largest economy rose by 18,100 units to 2.553 million in August, the data showed.

On the year, the number of unemployed people seeking a job was up by 25.8%, the office said.

-By Gabriele Parussini, Dow Jones Newswires; +33 1 4017 1766; gabriele.parussini@dowjones.com;

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=DN%2BOIjleI61npsBGKQv9oA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

US Existing Single-Family Home Sales-Sep 24

US Existing Single-Family Home Sales-Sep 24
    Existing home sales data are seasonally adjusted annual rates (in millions).
Average and median sales prices are not seasonally adjusted in thousand dollars.
Source: National Association of Realtors.

Single
Total Month Median Avg Family Month Median Avg
Month Sales % chg Sply Price Price Sales % chg Sply Price Price
-2009-
Aug 5.100 -2.7 8.5 177.7 222.8 tbr tbr tbr tbr tbr
Jul 5.240 7.2 9,3 181.5 227.4 4.610 6.5 8.6 178.3 238.5
Jun 4.890 3.6 9.4 182.0 227.9 4.330 2.6 8.9 181.6 228.5
May 4.720 1.3 9.8 174.7 218.1 4.220 1.2 9.1 174.6 218.3
Apr 4.660 2.4 10.1 166.6 208.8 4.170 2.2 9.5 166.0 208.5
Mar 4.550 -3.4 9.6 169.9 211.3 4.080 -3.3 9.0 169.7 211.4
Feb 4.710 4.9 9.7 168.2 210.3 4.220 4.2 9.1 167.9 210.4
Jan 4.490 -5.3 9.7 164.8 206.7 4.050 -4.7 9.2 164.2 205.9
-2008-
Dec 4.740 4.4 9.4 175.7 217.6 4.250 4.7 8.8 175.0 217.0
Nov 4.540 -8.1 11.0 180.3 223.0 4.060 -7.5 10.6 179.9 222.8
Oct 4.940 -3.1 10.2 186.4 229.6 4.390 -3.3 9.7 185.7 229.3
Sep 5.100 3.4 10.1 191.4 235.0 4.540 3.9 9.4 190.3 234.2
Aug 4.930 -1.2 10.6 203.2 245.6 4.370 -0.5 10.0 201.9 244.7
Jul 4.990 1.8 11.0 210.1 253.0 4.390 1.9 10.4 208.9 252.4
Jun 4.900 -1.0 11.0 215.0 257.7 4.310 -1.6 11.0 213.6 256.8
May 4.950 2.1 10.9 207.9 252.7 4.380 1.9 10.5 206.0 251.2
Apr 4.850 -1.4 11.3 201.3 247.3 4.300 -1.1 10.7 199.6 246.2
Mar 4.920 -0.6 10.0 200.1 247.2 4.350 -0.9 9.6 197.6 245.4
Feb 4.950 0.8 9.7 195.8 242.2 4.390 0.7 9.2 193.6 240.7
Jan 4.910 0.0 10.2 199.8 245.7 4.360 0.9 10.0 197.2 243.9
-2007-
Dec 4.910 -2.2 9.7 207.0 254.0 4.320 -2.0 9.4 205.0 253.0
Nov 5.020 -0.8 10.1 208.8 255.7 4.410 -0.5 9.8 207.3 255.5
Oct 5.060 -1.0 10.5 206.7 255.1 4.430 -0.4 10.2 204.8 253.6
Sep 5.110 -7.1 10.3 210.5 257.3 4.450 -7.5 10.0 208.6 256.3
Aug 5.500 -4.5 9.6 224.4 269.3 4.810 -4.0 9.3 223.7 269.3
Jul 5.760 0.2 9.5 228.6 276.0 5.010 0.0 9.2 228.5 277.3
Jun 5.750 -3.0 9.1 229.0 276.2 5.010 -2.9 9.0 229.2 277.9
May 5.930 0.0 8.9 222.7 270.6 5.160 -0.2 8.7 221.9 271.2
Apr 5.930 -2.9 8.5 219.9 268.2 5.170 -3.0 8.3 219.3 269.1
Mar 6.110 -7.4 7.5 217.4 265.1 5.330 -8.1 7.2 216.2 264.9
Feb 6.600 3.4 6.9 213.5 260.0 5.800 3.8 6.6 212.4 260.3
Jan 6.380 1.8 6.7 210.9 257.3 5.590 1.6 6.5 209.3 257.2
-2006-
Dec 6.270 0.3 6.6 221.6 268.0 5.500 0.2 6.4 220.8 268.5
Nov 6.250 -0.3 7.3 217.3 265.1 5.490 -0.5 7.1 216.7 266.0
Oct 6.270 0.6 7.4 218.9 264.6 5.520 1.1 7.2 219.6 266.4
Sep 6.230 -1.3 7.3 220.9 266.4 5.460 -1.3 7.1 221.1 267.7
Aug 6.310 -0.2 7.3 224.0 270.0 5.530 0.4 7.1 224.0 271.4
Jul 6.320 -2.6 7.3 230.2 275.4 5.510 -3.3 7.2 230.9 277.5
Jun 6.490 -2.8 6.9 229.3 275.8 5.700 -2.2 6.8 230.1 277.7
May 6.680 -0.4 6.4 228.5 273.7 5.830 -0.9 6.3 228.5 275.1
Apr 6.710 -2.8 6.1 222.6 269.1 5.880 -2.6 6.0 222.6 270.5
Mar 6.900 -0.6 5.6 217.6 264.5 6.040 -0.8 5.4 217.2 265.8
Feb 6.940 2.8 5.2 217.8 263.6 6.090 2.5 5.0 216.8 263.6
Jan 6.750 0.0 5.1 217.4 265.9 5.940 1.4 5.0 219.7 268.7
-2005-
Dec 6.750 -4.0 5.1 222.0 268.0 5.860 -4.7 4.9 221.6 269.2
Nov 7.030 -0.3 5.0 225.0 271.0 6.150 -0.5 4.9 225.2 272.5
Oct 7.050 -2.1 4.9 229.0 273.0 6.180 -1.7 4.8 229.2 274.6
Sep 7.200 -0.1 4.6 225.0 271.0 6.290 0.2 4.6 225.4 272.7
Aug 7.210 1.1 4.7 229.0 275.0 6.280 1.0 4.7 229.6 276.2
Jul 7.130 -1.9 4.6 228.0 274.0 6.220 -1.7 4.5 227.7 275.5
Jun 7.270 1.8 4.4 229.0 275.0 6.330 1.6 4.5 229.0 276.1
May 7.140 -0.4 4.3 217.0 265.0 6.230 -0.6 4.3 215.8 265.2
Apr 7.170 2.9 4.1 214.0 261.0 6.270 2.8 4.2 213.5 260.9
Mar 6.970 0.6 4.0 203.0 254.0 6.100 0.5 4.0 201.5 254.6
Feb 6.930 0.1 4.1 189.0 241.0 6.070 0.2 4.0 186.8 239.9
Jan 6.920 1.6 3.8 189.0 241.0 6.060 1.5 3.7 186.1 239.5
-2004-
Dec 6.810 -2.4 3.9 191.0 244.0 5.970 -2.8 3.9 188.9 242.8
Nov 6.980 2.0 4.4 190.0 242.0 6.140 1.8 4.3 188.1 240.8
Oct 6.840 0.7 4.3 187.0 239.0 6.030 1.0 4.3 185.4 238.2
Sep 6.790 0.4 4.2 187.0 237.0 5.970 0.5 4.2 185.7 236.4
Aug 6.760 -1.2 4.5 190.0 241.0 5.940 -1.0 4.5 188.8 239.9
Jul 6.840 -2.6 4.3 191.0 243.0 6.000 -2.8 4.4 190.2 243.1
Jun 7.020 1.9 4.1 191.0 245.0 6.170 1.8 4.2 191.0 245.5
May 6.890 1.5 4.2 184.0 236.0 6.060 1.3 4.3 182.4 234.5
Apr 6.790 3.3 4.3 179.0 230.0 5.980 3.5 4.3 177.1 229.0
Mar 6.570 2.7 4.4 175.0 223.0 5.780 2.7 4.4 174.0 223.0
Feb 6.400 NA 4.5 169.0 216.0 5.630 NA 4.5 168.1 215.9
-By Kareema Clark; Dow Jones Newswires; 202-646-1880;
csstat@dowjones.com
Related Fixed Story:
84391 US ECONOMIC INDICATORS: Housing statistics

GBP/USD close to daily low

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – GBP/USD remains close to 1.6060 daily low and strong support area, having lost around 330 pips from Asian high. Pair remains strongly bearish after breaking under 1.6110 and a daily close under 1.6110 will confirm the head and shoulders figure clear in daily charts, putting extra downside pressure in the pair.

Despite current rally seems a bit overextended to the downside, pair shows no intention of an upside correction at this point. Clearly under 1.6060, next support to consider comes at 1.6020 area, ahead of 1.5980. Corrective movements will find resistance at 1.6086 and 1.6110, that should keep the upside capped to validate the figure

ECB,Other Central Banks Extend Dollar, Swiss Franc Liquidity Operations

ECB,Other Central Banks Extend Dollar, Swiss Franc Liquidity Operations

FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- The European Central Bank's Governing Council has decided, in agreement with other leading central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to continue conducting U.S. dollar liquidity providing operations from October 2009 to January 2010, the ECB said Thursday.

A similar decision has been taken by the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, the ECB said in a statement. The Bank of Japan also said it will continue dollar liquidity providing operations into January 2010.

In agreement with the Swiss National Bank, the ECB will also continue conducting Swiss franc liquidity providing swap operations until Jan. 31, 2010 "to support further improvements in the short-term Swiss franc funding markets."

Web site: www.ecb.int

-By Emese Bartha, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 69 2972 5516, emese.bartha@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=DN%2BOIjleI61npsBGKQv9oA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

Forex: GBP/USD: Pound dives below 1.6100, at two-months low

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Pound is going through a shocking selloff on Thursday and from 1.6380 intra-day high ahead of the European markets opening, the pair has dived below 1.6100, and the Pound hit a fresh 2-month low at 1.6065; 1.4% below its day opening level.

According to james chen, technical analyst at FX Solutions a strong break below 1.6100 could open the doors towards 1.5800: "In the case of GBP/USD, the immediate event to watch for would be a strong breakdown below 1.6100 support, in which case the 1.5800 price region would be a clear further support target to the downside. Like other major currencies against the U.S. dollar, GBP is still entrenched within an overall uptrend, but this could very well be in jeopardy on GBP/USD if the pair continues to lose ground."

Mexico's Stocks Open Lower, Peso Weaker Vs Dollar

Mexico's Stocks Open Lower, Peso Weaker Vs Dollar

By Anthony Harrup

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexican stocks opened lower Thursday, continuing their downward momentum into a fifth straight session after a recent climb to 15-month highs.

The market's benchmark IPC index was down 1.1% to 28,642.96 points around 10:15 a.m. EDT. Volume was 36.6 million shares worth 966.2 million pesos ($72.1 million).

Cement company Cemex (CX) CPO shares were off 0.4% to MXN17.37. Cemex said Wednesday that underwriters of its capital increase will exercise their over-allotment option to buy an additional 195 million CPO shares.

The overallotments raise Cemex's proceeds from the share offer to $1.78 billion from $1.55 billion, money the company will use to pay down debt under the $15 billion debt rescheduling agreement completed last month with creditors.

The peso was weaker against the U.S. dollar, quoted in Mexico City at MXN13.4125, compared with MXN13.3375 at Wednesday's close.

The peso has remained under pressure this week with participants cautious about the 2010 budget negotiations in Congress, as well as mixed local economic data. While retail sales for July picked up from June, unemployment in August continued to rise, reaching 6.3%, its highest level since the 1995 crisis.

Scotiabank said in a report that Moody's decision this week to upgrade Brazil to investment grade - joining Fitch and Standard & Poor's - also put some pressure on the peso.

The Bank of Mexico reported Thursday that consumer prices rose 0.39% in the first half of September, in line with expectations. The increase brought annual inflation down to 5% - its lowest level since May 2008.

While stocks and currency were under selling pressure, local government bonds were gaining, pushing yields lower. The yield on bonds due 2018 was down 4 basis points to 7.93%, and 2027 bond yields were down 5 basis points to 8.45%.

"Foreign investors continue to gradually enter the local market," ING Mexico said in a report.

-By Anthony Harrup, Dow Jones Newswires; (5255) 5001 5727, anthony.harrup@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=DN%2BOIjleI61npsBGKQv9oA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

Gold Rally Reflects Long-Term Dollar Woes - Platts Exec

Gold Rally Reflects Long-Term Dollar Woes - Platts Exec

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The gold price rise in U.S. dollar terms is an indication that the currency has problems that are unlikely to go away, Jorge Montepeque, director at Platts, said at the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index seminar in London.

Montepeque said while gold has risen in dollar terms it has fallen in euro terms. "It tells me the dollar has a huge problem and I don't think it will improve," Montepeque told the audience at the seminar.

Montepeque said U.S. debt is a large reason for that.

At 1414 GMT, spot gold was trading at $1,007.50 a troy ounce, up 15% since the start of the year.

-By Devon Maylie, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9483; devon.maylie@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=DN%2BOIjleI61npsBGKQv9oA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 24, 2009 10:23 ET (14:23 GMT)

Saturday, September 19, 2009

PRESS DIGEST - British business

The Times

PRIMARY HEALTH RAISES FUNDS

Primary Health Properties ( PHP.L) has become the latest real estate-based group to raise funds in order to benefit from opportunities to acquire assets and reduce debt. The company is scrutinising 21 properties worth just over 90 million pounds. Primary Health has raised 60 million pounds, before expenses, through a placing and open offer pitched at 230 pence. Although the shares contracted almost 10 percent following the move, they have outperformed the broader sector over the past month and analysts believe the value of its properties could start to rise.

The Daily Telegraph

BA DIVES INTO DOGFIGHT: UK AIRLINE BIDS TO TEAM UP WITH JAL

British Airways (BAY.L has intervened in the battle between American Airlines and Delta over the future of Japan Airlines (9205.T). The company is lobbying on behalf of AA, which is its partner in the Oneworld airline alliance, after Delta tried to lure JAL into the rival SkyTeam alliance. It is reported that Delta has offered to inject 50 billion yen (336 million pounds) into JAL in return for a stake with the condition that it defects to SkyTeam. AA is believed to have made a counter offer of 300 million dollars (185 million pounds).

AVIVA PAYOUT

An offer by Aviva (AV.L) to pay out 500 million pounds to nearly one million policyholders in two of its with-profits funds has been approved by the High Court. The two funds are CGNU and Culac, also known as the company's "inherited estate". Aviva is sitting on a surplus of 1.2 billion pounds in the two funds. Eligible customers will receive between 200 and 1,150 pounds each.

BLUEBAY SUFFERS

Full-year pre-tax profits at BlueBay Asset Management (BBAY.L) have fallen by more than half from 50.1 million pounds to 17.5 million pounds for the year ending June. The fixed income manager has been hit by an exodus of clients from the most expensive funds and the market sell-off towards the end of 2008. Confidence is returning however, with a reported 15 percent rise to 27.8 billion dollars in assets under management in July and August.

The Independent

SKY FURY OVER OFCOM'S "EXTREME" INTERVENTION

Broadcaster BSkyB (BSY.L) has reacted angrily to Ofcom's proposals to regulate the pay-TV market. The group criticised the regulator's intervention as "extreme and unprecedented". Ofcom aims to force Sky to offer wholesale its premium content, which includes Premier League football, to its market rivals at a reduced price. Sky said the proposals "go beyond" competition law and that Ofcom's financial modelling was not "fit for purpose".

SONGBIRD ESTATES INCREASES STAKE IN CANARY WHARF

Songbird Estates (SBDC.L ) plans to spend 112.5 million pounds on boosting its stake in Canary Wharf, despite having recently come up with terms for a rights issue to rescue it. The real estate firm will buy 54 million shares in Canary Wharf from Germany's Commerzbank, increasing its stake to 69.3 percent. David Pritchard, chairman of Songbird, said the buyout "demonstrates the commitment to the company by a core set of investors". The proceeds of the rights issue, which were earmarked to repay an 880 million pound loan to Citibank, will now also partly finance the buyout.

EXCEPTIONAL CHARGES HIT PROFITS AT DOBBIES

FOREX-Dollar rebounds from 1-year low versus euro

* Waning risk appetite boosts dollar's safe-haven appeal

* Dollar rises versus yen on Japanese official's comments

* Sterling drops as Lloyds' news fans financial jitters (Adds comment, updates prices)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded from a one-year low against the euro on Friday as waning risk appetite cut demand for higher-yielding currencies and boosted safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Sterling declined across the board, hitting a near five-month low euro on renewed concerns about the UK banking sector.

The dollar has sold off sharply this month as investors shifted into riskier assets on increasing signs the global economy is recovering. The prospect of low U.S. yields and concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit fueled dollar selling.

But the currency gained a respite on Friday as investors trimmed their positions ahead of holidays in Japan and Singapore next week, although the trend for broad dollar weakness was seen as likely to persist.

"Today overall has been a retracement day and a profit-taking day," said Andrew Busch, a global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. "(But) I don't see anything on the horizon just yet that would take us out of this sell-the-U.S. dollar mode."

With no U.S. data to lend direction, currencies are taking their cues from equity and commodity markets. World equities .MIWD00000PUS came under pressure after scaling an 11-month peak as investors took stock of recent hefty gains, although Wall Street ended higher in a choppy session.

"I still think that currencies are at the mercy of the stock market," said Fabian Eliasson, vice president of currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York.

In late New York trading, the euro EUR= fell 0.3 percent to $1.4701. It hit a one-year high on Thursday and has risen 2.6 percent so far this month.

The dollar index .DXY, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.4 percent to 76.500, having bounced off Thursday's one-year low of 76.010.

STERLING SLUMPS

The yen fell after Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said he did not want to be perceived as backing a strong yen. [ID:nTKU105559]

The dollar was last up 0.4 percent at 91.38 yen JPY=, having rebounded from a seven-month low hit on Wednesday

Monday, September 7, 2009

Stocks and USD lower on concern about US Economic growth

As FED Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday raised concern on US economic growth USD and stocks went lower.

Overnight News Bullets

  • SZ Unemployment Rate (Oct) out at 2.6% vs. 2.5% expected. Prior at 2.5%.

  • GE Trade Balance (Sep) out at 18.1B vs. 16.0B expected. Prior at 14.1B.

  • JN Eco Watchers Survey (Oct): Current out at 41.5 vs. 42.9 prior. Outlook out at 43.1 vs. 46.0 prior.

  • GE Current Account (Sep) out at 15.4B vs. 12.1B expected. Prior at 8.8B.

  • CZ CPI MoM/YoY (Oct) out at 0.6%/4.0% vs. 0.4%/4.0% expected. Prior at -0.3%/2.8%.

  • CZ Unemployment Rate (Oct) out at 5.8% vs. 5.9% expected. Prior at 6.2%.

  • SW Industrial Production MoM/YoY (Sep) out at -0.6%/1.1% vs. 0.5%/2.9% expected. Prior at -0.5%/2.8%.

  • UK BoE keeps rates unchanged at 5.75% as expected.

  • EC ECB keeps rates unchanged at 4.00% as expected.

  • CA Housing Starts (Oct) out at 219.5K vs. 228K expected. Prior at 281.3K.

  • US Initial/Cont. Claims out at 317K/2579K vs. 325/2560 expected.

  • CA New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep) out at 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected. Prior at 0.4%.

  • US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change out at 36 vs. 30 expected. Prior at 66.

  • UK Leading Indicator Index MoM (Sep) out at -0.1% vs. -0.2% prior.

  • UK Coincident Indicator MoM (Sep) out 0.1% vs. 0.2% prior.

  • US ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Oct) out at 1.6% vs. 2.0% expected. Prior at 1.7%.

  • JN Industrial Production MoM/YoY (Sep F) out unchanged at -1.4%/0.8% as expected.

  • JN Capacity Utilization (Sep F) out at 108.6 vs. 109.7 prior.


Markets

  • FX: Further dollar weakness after Bernanke comments. GBPUSD over 2.11, EURUSD over 1.47.

  • Fixed Income: US notes higher and JGBs complete second weekly gain. European bonds little changed.

  • Stocks: Asian equities mixed, with Nikkei down about 1%, Hang Seng and ASX higher. American equities broadly lower with exception of S&P only up a marginal 0.07%

  • Commodities: Crude prices higher with December contract again over $96 a barrel. Gold consolidates around $834 an ounce.


O/N Data Heat map:

Data heat mapd


Calendar

Today's Highlights:


Time (GMT) Region Release Consensus
09:00SW AMS Unemployment Rate (OCT) 3.20%
09:00NO Producer Prices Incl. Oil MoM/YoY (OCT) 2.3% / -0.2%
09:00NO CPI Headline MoM/YoY (OCT) 0.4% / 0.0%
09:00NO CPI Core MoM/YoY (OCT) 0.2% / 1.6%
09:30UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Month (SEP) -?‚??6900
09:30UK Trade Balance Non-EU GBP/Month (SEP) -?‚??3900
09:30UK Total Trade Balance (SEP) -?‚??4100
11:00EC Euro-Zone OECD Leading Indicators (SEP) Prior 107.3
13:30US Trade Balance (SEP) -$58.5B
13:30CA International Merchandise Trade (SEP) C$3.9
13:30US Import Price Index MoM/YoY (OCT) 1.2% / 9.0%
15:00US University of Michigan Confidence (NOV) 80
18:00US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (NOV) 1795


This and Next Week???‚¬?„?s Highlights:


Date Region Release
11-NovJN Domestic CGPI, Current Account Total, Trade Balance BOP Basis
12-NovJN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting, Bankruptcies, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Confidence Households, a string of GDP???‚¬?„?s
12-NovSW A string of CPI???‚¬?„?s
12-NovUK A string of PPI???‚¬?„?s, DLCG UK House Prices
13-NovUK Rics House Price Balance
13-NovAU NAB Business Confidence/Conditions, Westpac Consumer Confidence, Wage Cost Index
13-NovUK A string of CPI???‚¬?„?s, Retail Price Index, RPI ex. Mort. Int. Payments
13-NovGE ZEW Survey (Econ.sentiment), ZEW Survey (Current situation)
13-NovEC ZEW Survey (Econ.sentiment), E-Z Industrial Produktion
13-NovUS IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Monthly Budget Statement, Pending Home Sales, ABC Consumer Confidence


What's going on?

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified to lawmakers, acknowledging the economic expansion would cool. Speculation is reheating that further rate cuts would take place in US following 75 bp cuts over the past 2 months.

  • Dollar depreciated against 13 most-traded currencies on rate cut speculation, with cable now above 2.11 and yuan heading for biggest weekly gain since 2005.

  • Global equities are broadly lower on sentiment of slowing US economy, with financial in Asia leading losses. Commodity and energy stock gains balance the picture somewhat as rising commodity prices support the resource providers.

  • An approaching storm in North Sea and weeks-long outage in Texas refinery pushed crude prices back to $100 a barrel trajectory, with December contract again trading over $96.


FX

Fx trading strategies



FX Trading Strategies


Pair Supp. Resis. Comments
USDJPY 111.6113.25We have signals on both sides for a break-out play. For the upside we placed an order to buy at 112.89 bid, targeting 113.30. Stop offer at 112.74. To the downside, we sell 112.22 offer, targeting 111.60, stop at 112.51 bid. We placed ?‚?? positions. .

The dollar may start recovery today

EUR/USD (1.4332)
European & US sessions forecast levels: 1.4050/1.4445
Trend Sessions: European: Neutral
US: Neutral/Downward
Market Focus: 4:30 AM EU Sentix Indicator, 6:00 AM Germany Factory orders.
Daily Strategy: The dollar remains weak against the euro after the Friday’s report for new jump of U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-farm payrolls. The U.S. Unemployment closes 10% that probably will happen till the end of 2009. The overall technical analyses show that the dollar is still below the key resistance at 1.4445. The break above this level will open the way for levels of 1.47/1.48. It is expecting mix trading today with movements into both directions.

Weekly Technical Strategy EURUSD

EURUSD: Continues To Hold Above Its MT Rising Trendline

With declines to as low as 1.4176 reversed and a neutral candle printed the past week, EUR continues to maintain above its medium term rising trendline initiated at the 1.2456 level. This leaves the pair biased to the upside towards its YTD high sited at the 1.4446 level where a decisive penetration will put it on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18'08 high and possibly higher targeting the 1.4875 level, representing its Sept 21'09 high. On the other hand, downside targets are located at the 1.4176 level, its Sept 01'09 low and the 1.4088 level, representing rising trendline. Below there though not expected at the current price levels could drive the pair further lower towards the 1.3747 level, its Jun 16'09 low. On the whole, we maintain that while the pair holds above its rising trendline, outlook for further upside gain remains

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term -Mixed

Short Term - Bullish

Medium Term -Bullish

Performance in %:

Past Week: +0.05%

Past Month: +0.55%

Past Quarter: +5.89%

Year To Date: +2.32%

Weekly Range:

High -1.4378

Low -1.4176

G20: FSB Draghi: Need Reform Momentum To Avoid Future Crisis


LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Signs that the world economy is in a sustainable recovery are becoming clearer, but many underlying problems have yet to be resolved, Indonesia's central bank governor said Friday.

In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, ahead of a meeting of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies in London, Bank Indonesia Acting Governor Darmin Nasution said he remained "cautious" about the outlook.

"We don't know whether there will be a double dip. Hopefully not. I think we can say the majority opinion now is the recovery is more and more certain," Nasution said.

"But many, several problems in the financial sector haven't been resolved yet. We don't expect that the recovery is there and then all (of the problems are) forgotten about."

Nasution said that Bank Indonesia's decision Thursday to keep interest rates on hold at 6.5% - marking a pause in an easing cycle that began in December - had been the result of "deep consideration."

Asked whether further rates cuts could be ruled out, he said that if there were no significant changes in the data, the central bank would tend not to alter policy.

-By Natasha Brereton, Dow Jones Newswires, +44-20-7842-9254, natasha.brereton@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 04, 2009 12:59 ET (16:59 GMT)

G20: BOJ Gov: Discussed General Thinking Of Exit Strategy

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said Saturday that he exchanged general views with other nations over how and when to exit unorthodox monetary and fiscal measures but he didn't give a clear indication on whether or not Japan will need to terminate these steps in the immediate future.

The Group of 20 industrial and developing nations "exchanged opinions about the timing and ways to terminate extraordinary measures many countries have taken and what kind of points we must pay attention to when exiting," Shirakawa told reporters after attending a G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads.

As for a cap on bonus payments to bankers, Senior Vice Finance Minister Wataru Takeshita said, at a joint press conference with the BOJ chief, that Japan will push efforts to avoid excessive risk taking.

   -By Megumi Fujikawa, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-6895-7559; megumi.fujikawa@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 05, 2009 12:52 ET (16:52 GMT)

G20: FSB Draghi: Need Reform Momentum To Avoid Future Crisis

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- General financial conditions are improving but financial reform momentum needs to continue in order to ensure that the recent financial crisis doesn't happen again, the chairman of the Financial Stability Board said Saturday.

Financial "conditions are improving and with their improvement, the banks profitability is improving," Mario Draghi said at a press briefing after a meeting of finance ministers from the group of 20 industrial and developing nations. Draghi is also an ECB governing council member and governor of the Bank of Italy.

He said that although financial conditions were improving, "more needs to done to make the financial system resilient."

He said the G20 finance ministers backed the need to keep the momentum going on financial reform. He said the FSB will be charged with providing guidelines on improving the quality of capital held by financial institutions and providing guidelines on compensation.

On banker compensation, he said the FSB would be focused on tackling the structure rather than the level of compensation

BIS: CBRC Liu - Loan Growth More Stable In 2nd Half

BIS: CBRC Liu - Loan Growth More Stable In 2nd Half

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The head of China's banking regulator said Sunday that growth of new yuan loans should stabilize in the second half, and that generally he sees no problem with lending conditions.

Speaking on the sidelines of meetings of central bank officials in Basel, China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Mingkang said that Chinese loan growth was "still quite good," despite recent declines.

New yuan loans fell sharply to CNY355.9 billion in July from CNY1.53 trillion in June, sending shock waves through China's equity market. There are reports that lending weakened even further in August.

Liu noted that the stock and ratio of non-performing loans had fallen in the first half of 2009, as lending had increased.

In "the second half of this year, I think that the speed [of loan growth] will be more stable and we monitor the risks envisaged very closely," Liu said. "In general, I don't think that there is any problem."

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Economic News

USD - Dollar Trades Lower Before U.S. Jobs Report

The U.S. Dollar was slightly stronger vs. the EUR on Thursday, as investors squared positions ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report later today. The USD also traded near a week low against the British Pound before a U.S. government report forecast to showed employers eliminated fewer jobs last month, sapping demand for the greenback as a refuge from the global recession. The USD traded at $1.6323 per pound from $1.6275 yesterday, after falling to $1.6413, the lowest level since Aug. 25.

The greenback briefly extended gains against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, after the Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 48.4 in August from 46.4 in July. The U.S. currency finished trading at 92.58 Yen from 92.28 Yen, and is poised for a 4th weekly loss, the longest stretch since December.

Today's Non-Farm payrolls data is expected to have a strong impact on the U.S currency. Any result could be a surprise, and the Dollar could go either way as a result. In any case, traders are unsure how the market will react to today's data. A weak report could feed risk aversion, boost Treasuries and actually aid the U.S Dollar. Then again, a better than expected result might be seen as a sign of relative U.S. economic strength, and lift the Dollar. Or it could also encourage risk-taking and aid commodities and higher-yielding currencies at the Dollar's expense.

EUR - EUR Drops versus the Dollar on ECB President Trichet's Comments

The EUR gave back early gains against most major counterparts after the European Central Bank kept Interest Rates at a record low of 1%, and stated that the period of contraction has come to an end in the Euro-Zone. The EUR/USD cross slipped to $1.4250, after having slipped from a peak of $1.4346 on Thursday. This was after the European Central Bank President, Jean Claude Trichet made less hawkish statements than many expected.

Meanwhile, the European currency also headed for its first weekly decline versus the Pound since Aug. 7 after ECB's Trichet warned yesterday of a rather uneven recovery, even as the ECB raised its growth forecasts. The British Pound advanced as economic data showed the U.K. services sector growing more rapidly than had been anticipated last month. The news sent the GBP/USD cross as high as $1.643 during Thursday's trading session.

Trichet's remarks that the economic recovery is not strong enough to start withdrawing monetary stimulus measures hurt the single currency too. Still, market players reported good support under $1.4200, which should hold into the today's job reports data from the U.S.

JPY - The Yen Pulls Back From 7 Week High

The Japanese Yen weakened against 14 of its 16 major counterparts on Thursday on speculation Asian stocks will extend a global equity rally, spurring demand for higher-yielding assets. The JPY retreated from a 7 week high against the U.S Dollar as higher share prices prompted investors to trim holdings of the low-risk Japanese currency.

The Yen's retreat also occurred due to a rally in Chinese shares prompting investors to trim holdings of the low-risk JPY. Japan's currency may decline for a second day versus the EUR as futures on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average expiring in September closed at 10,235 in New York yesterday, higher than 10,230 in Osaka.

Crude Oil - Oil Under Pressure on OPEC Output Expectations

Crude Oil ended Thursday's volatile trading without any gains as investors reacted to a weekly jobless report. Prices settled at $68.12 a barrel, as disappointing news from the labor market outweighed economic optimism from data showing that the U.S. service sector and retail sales improved. Traders are also eyeing news that big Oil producers are increasing output. OPEC is expected to leave output targets unchanged when it next meets on September 9th in Vienna.

U.S. Crude prices have been range bound between $65 to $75 a barrel since the start of August, fluctuating on the latest clues about the speed of an impending economic recovery. However, there's not a whole lot of momentum in the market in either direction. The trend for Crude Oil, which has been down, is still in force this week. Oil prices are not likely to break out of the confines of the current range in the short term, analysts say.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Hungarian Forint Declines on Asian Bearish Markets

Hungarian ForintThe Hungarian currency declined together following most of Eastern European countries currencies, as a negative performance in Asian stock markets declined attractiveness for riskier assets, spurring demand for safety in dollar and yen priced assets.

Several Eastern European currencies declined today like the Polish zloty and the Russian ruble, mostly influenced by an increase in risk aversion regarding the future of the world economy, since evidences of a complete recovery are still lacking in virtually all economic regions throughout the world. The Hungarian forint also dropped, since Hungary is facing one of the worse recession among the European Union country members.

USD/HUF traded at 190.06 as of 10:44 GMT from an opening rate of 189.30 yesterday.

Canadian Dollar Declines Sharply on Oil Faltering Demand

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar started this week losing versus most of the 16 main traded currencies as a negative performance in stocks and commodities influenced the loonie’s attractiveness today, as investors opted for the safety of the greenback.

After last week’s declarations from the Bank of Canada affirming that a strong loonie could delay the economic recovery in the North American nation, the loonie’s attractiveness decline, also being affected today by a bearish stock market in Asia and a decline in demand for commodities, erasing the Canadian currency past weeks’ gains.

USD/CAD traded at 1.0974 as of 10:26 GMT from an opening rate of 1.0915 yesterday.