Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Swedish September Retail Sales +0.2% On Month
The following is a press release from Statistiska Centralbyran, or SCB, the Swedish central government authority for official statistics.
STOCKHOLM--Retail trade sales increased by 0.2% in September compared to August, seasonally adjusted figures. Compared to September 2008, the retail trade sales increased by 2.7%.
Retail trade for mostly food increased 2.7% compared to September 2008 and retail trade for mostly durables increased by 2.9%.
Statistics Sweden Web site: www.scb.se
DATA SNAP: Spain Sep Retail Sales -3.4% On Yr Vs -4% In Aug
Spanish retail sales fell 3.4% on the year earlier in September after falling by 4% on the year in August and by 4.6% on the year in July, the INE said in a statement.
In calendar-adjusted terms, retail sales also fell by 3.4% in September.
Spanish consumer spending has been undermined by rapidly rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence as the country's ailing construction industry sheds hundreds of thousands of jobs.
INE Web site: www.ine.es
-By Jonathan House, Dow Jones Newswires; +34 91 395 8121; jonathan.house@dowjones.com
Forex: EUR/USD will remain offered below 1.4925/50, targeting 1.4588/36 - Commerzbank
For today Jones foresees Euro recoveries to cap at 1.4925/50: "EUR/USD will remain offered intraday below 1.4925/50 - target 1.4588/36 (55 day ma and uptrend) we look for this to hold and provoke recovery."
Vietnam Oct Coal Output Estimated 3.35M Tons; Down 13% On Year
HANOI (Dow Jones)--Vietnam's coal production in October is estimated to have fallen 13% from the same month last year to 3.35 million metric tons, the General Statistics Office said Wednesday.
The country produced 2.877 million tons in September, according to revised GSO data.
In the January-October period, the country produced an estimated 34.916 million tons, up 4.2% compared with the same period last year, the GSO said.
Electricity output in October rose 17% from a year earlier to 7.5 billion kilowatt-hours, the GSO said. In September, Vietnam produced 10 billion kWh of electricity.
In the January-October period, Vietnam produced 69.7 billion kWh, up 12.3% from a year earlier.
DATA SNAP: German Saxony Oct CPI +0.1% MM, -0.1% YY
Consumer prices rose 0.1% on the month and declined 0.1% on the year, data from the state statistics office showed Wednesday.
Prices for food and household energy continued to exert downward pressure, the data showed. Food and alcohol-free beverage prices fell 0.3% on the month and declined 3.4% on the year, while household energy prices fell 0.2% on the month and were down 6.8% on the year earlier.
In September consumer prices in Saxony fell 0.3% on both monthly and annual terms.
Five other German states will publish inflation data throughout the day Wednesday before the Federal Statistics Office publishes pan-German inflation figures.
Economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey forecast steady prices on the month and a 0.1% decline on the year.
Web site: www.statistik.sachsen.de
Pound Extend Gains on Retail Sales
Speculations that retail sales would post another month of gains were confirmed providing support for the pound to regain terrain versus the euro and several other currencies, changing the negative outlook for the British currency to a better trajectory.
The pound gained versus most of 16 traded currencies as retail sales in the U.K. touched the highest level in 2 years in October, bringing confidence back towards pound-priced assets, after rather turbulent weeks that shunned away investors from the British currency in foreign-exchange markets.
EUR/GBP traded at 0.9039 as of 21:36 GMT from a previous rate of 0.9118 in the intraday.
Sweden’s Krona Down Further on Economic Outlook
Since RiksBank affirmed that interest rates in Sweden will continue at record low levels to stimulate the economic growth in the Nordic country, the krona has been having negative sessions which aggravated today after producer prices fell in September, evidencing the fragility of the Swedish economy.
USD/SEK closed today at 6.9705 from an opening rate of 6.8691.
Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Decline Speculations
Even if BANK OF CANADA policy makers are constantly stressing on the fact that loonie rates should go down to ensure a fast recovery for the Canadian economy, the loonie gained today after several days of negative performance, after investors interpreted BOC statements as not-so-relevant compared to fundamental data regarding the Canadian economy during the past quarter, which is indicating a solid and resilient economy. The loonie gained today versus almost all major traded currencies except the yen, which gained significantly as investors opted for safety in a day of bearish performance in equities and commodities markets.
Analysts agree that even if policy makers are affecting the loonie’s perform in the short-term, the sentiment towards the Canadian currency remains very positive, as it’s back by crude oil rates, one of the main Canadian exports to the U.S., as also on the North American national economic fundamentals, which are better than most economic regions throughout the world.
USD/CAD traded at 1.0647 as of 20:43 GMT from 1.0716 hours earlier.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Colombia IGBC Stock Index Rises On Expectations Of Lower Rates
BOGOTA (Dow Jones)--The Colombian stock index rose Friday on investors' expectations the central bank may further cut interest rates in a bid to slow the peso appreciation.
The benchmark IGBC stock index rose 0.7% to 10,942.50 points.
"Investors bought stocks as some of them expect the country's central bank may cut interest rates," said Cesar Tovar, market analyst with local brokerage Nacional de Valores.
Lower interest rates make companies' financial costs fall.
On Thursday evening, Colombian Finance Minister Oscar Ivan Zuluaga said the central bank will evaluate whether to start buying dollars on the spot market to tame the appreciation of the peso.
He said the bank will evaluate taking other measures.
Shares of Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA (GRUPOSURA.BO) rose 1.8% to 23,200 Colombian pesos ($12.58).
Shares of state-controlled telephone company Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Bogota SA (ETB.BO), or ETB, rose 3.6% to COP901.
The Colombian peso strengthened to 1,843.5 pesos to the dollar, from COP1,846 on Thursday. The yield on the benchmark peso-denominated government bond maturing in 2020 fell to 8.603% from 8.748% on Thursday.
Argentina Sep Indus Output -10.5% On Yr, +1.1% On Mo - OJF
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's industrial output fell sharply in September on the year, indicating that the an economic recovery is still a ways off.
Industrial production fell 10.5% from the same month a year earlier but rose 1.1% on the month, the think tank Orlando J Ferreres & Asociados, or OJF, reported Friday.
Year-on-year output has now declined each month for the past year, according to OJF. That puts accumulated January through September output down 9.5% from a year earlier.
Still, September's increase in the month-on-month data was the third of its kind in a row, indicating that the industry's doldrums seem to have bottomed out.
OJF said results for the rest of the year will likely improve because they'll be compared with data from late 2008, when the global financial crisis was just starting to have an impact on Argentina.
Moreover, a solid recovery in Brazil, Argentina's top trade partner, as well as a "calmer financial situation," should help the sector through next year, OJF said.
The think tank's estimates coincide with other private sector estimates that indicate output has fallen sharply since the beginning of the global crisis.
But the data clash with official government figures that show only a minor slowdown in production.
The national statistics institute, Indec, will release official industrial output data on October 23.
Indec last reported that August output declined 1.7% on the year but was up 0.6% on the month.
Economists here routinely discard the reliability of official statistics, saying the data are tainted.
Government officials deny the charges.
Forex: USD/CHF ends week below 1.0200
Against Cable, the Swiss fell sharply on Friday. GBP/CHF extended the rally and finished above 1.6600 at a two week high. The pair rose 450 pips in the last two days.
CURRENCIES: Dollar Up As Weak Data Hits Stocks
By Deborah Levine
The U.S. dollar advanced versus the euro and Japanese yen on Friday as data showed gains in foreign funds flowing to the U.S. and weakness in consumer confidence spurred selling of stocks.
The dollar and British pound rebounded from recent lows scored the previous day as traders reversed bets that the dollar will fall further, and U.S. equities declined, easing pressure to continue selling the greenback.
"Going into the weekend, today's sell-off in the Dow provides players with a convenient excuse to take profit on short U.S. dollar positions and reload for next week," Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at The Bank of New York Mellon, wrote in emailed comments.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose to 75.584, up from 75.480 in North American trade late Thursday after sliding to a series of 14-month lows earlier in the week.
The dollar bought 90.82 yen, up from 90.59 yen, giving up bigger gains earlier in the session.
The euro traded at $1.4903 versus the dollar, down from $1.4933 after failing to breach the psychologically important $1.50 level.
Reducing the attractiveness of equities and supporting the dollar, a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment pulled back more than anticipated this month.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index fell to 69.4 in early October from 73.5 in September. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch expected, on average, for the index to read 72.
That followed a report showed U.S. industrial production jumped 0.7% last month, topping expectations. Capacity utilization rose to 70.5% in September from a revised 69.9% in August, also higher than anticipated.
"These diverging signals highlight the recent uncertainty" over whether third-quarter growth can be sustained, analysts at Action Economics wrote. "The downside risks as we approach year-end are clear."
An earlier report from the U.S. Treasury Department showed foreign investors nearly doubled purchases of U.S. assets in August.
Foreign official buyers sold more short-term assets and bought long-term securities. Private investors in other countries bought more U.S. equities and favored longer-term assets of all types, indicating more preference for riskier assets than Treasurys, noted foreign-exchange analysts at Barclays Capital.
Gains in stocks and other indications of investor willingness to make more aggressive investments over the last several months have been detrimental to the dollar, as its safe-haven status is no longer desired.
"Our overall assessment is that these numbers remain mediocre but are not nearly as negative as the July release," Barclays analysts wrote in a note.
Focus also returned to the lack of fluctuations in the Chinese yuan, a day after the U.S. Treasury repeated its previous finding that China was not formally manipulating its currency.
The People's Bank of China set the yuan's official rate 6.8270 against the dollar Friday, according to reports, down slightly from 6.8267 Thursday. The yuan is allowed to fluctuate on 0.5% on either side of the official daily rate.
China's foreign-exchange policy risks "unwinding" some of the progress made in reducing global trade imbalances during the financial crisis, the U.S. Treasury said Thursday in its latest report on foreign-exchange trading.
Weekly move
The dollar index is still headed towards a second weekly loss, sliding more than 1% from last Friday. The yen has seen a roughly 1% increase since last Friday. The shared euro is still up about 1.4% versus the dollar this week.
With much vocalization about the fall in the dollar's value, some analysts and policy makers alike point to the still orderly decline that has left the dollar index down 7% this year, which is not abnormal given the reversal of investor's need for safety in the credit crisis and a readjustment of imports and exports as consumer demand has slowed.
"No policy maker is going to argue for a weak dollar," said Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said Friday, according to news reports. Recent movement in the dollar "has to do with trade adjustment."
Euro breather
August trade data for the euro zone showed the 16-nation region swung to a larger-than- deficit with the rest of the world.
The figures come amid rising unease among euro-zone officials and businesses over the strength of the euro, which fell slightly against the dollar to $1.4903 on Friday.
From a technical standpoint, the euro remains "slightly overbought," versus the dollar, wrote Nicole Elliott, a technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank.
Nonetheless, a "weekly close above $1.4800 would confirm that the next leg of the (euro) rally has started," she said.
British pound
The battered pound was the biggest winner among major currencies, continuing to power higher versus the euro and the greenback a day after a Bank of England policy maker signaled satisfaction with the impact of the central bank's quantitative-easing strategy.
The British pound gained ground versus the dollar rising to $1.6355, up from $1.6270 Thursday. The euro slipped 0.8% versus sterling to 91.11 pence.
The British currency has advanced 2.6% this week against the dollar.
Traders said the remarks by Paul Fisher, the bank's director of markets and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, were sufficient to trigger an explosive round of short covering. U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released last week showed a historic build-up of short positions against British pound futures, noted analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
"The fundamentals for the pound are still negative, with interest rate differentials favoring other currencies," they wrote. "Next week's minutes of the Bank of England meeting may also reinforce the fragile nature of the economic recovery, and the likelihood of rates remaining at this low level for some time."
Others cautioned that betting against the pound in the midst of a run of unexpectedly strong third-quarter earnings report by major banks could prove perilous.
"We would caution against being short GBP [selling the British pound] when U.S. bank earnings are again generally beating expectations, as markets treat GBP as a proxy for the performance of the financial sector," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London.
"Our short-term models also continue to show GBP heavily oversold relative to short rate expectations and bank stocks, consistent with other evidence that short-GBP is a seriously overcrowded trade currently," he wrote in emailed comments.
Friday, October 2, 2009
German VDIK: May Up 09 New Car Registration View To 3.7M Units
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Germany's association of international vehicle manufacturers, VDIK, is considering raising its 2009 outlook for German new car registrations to 3.7 million vehicles from 3.45 million vehicles previously, the association told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.
New registrations in September rose about 20% on the year and about 26% in the first nine months of 2009, the association added, noting these are preliminary figures. In 2008, 3.09 million new cars were registered according to the association.
Company Web site: www.vdik.de
ECOFIN: Spain Fin Min: Not Worried About Inflation
GOTHENBURG, Sweden -(Dow Jones)- Inflation isn't a concern at the moment, Spanish Finance Minister Elena Salgado said Friday.
Salgado, speaking to journalists on the sidelines of a meeting of European Union finance ministers and central bankers, didn't say whether she was referring to the Spanish economy or the euro zone as a whole.
Subdued inflation among the countries that use the euro has allowed the European Central Bank to cut its key rate to 1.0% from 4.25% over the past year.
Salgado noted that recent stress tests conducted on E.U. banks showed lenders were "resilient."
-By Adam Cohen, Dow Jones Newswires; +322 741 1486; adam.cohen@dowjones.com
Forex: EUR/USD: Risk on the downside, could test 1.4440 area - Commerzbank
The Euro as started to erode 1.4550 area, and, according to Jones, opening the doors for a deeper downward correction: "EUR/USD has started to erode support at 1.4551/38, leaving under pressure in the near term to see a deeper correction lower."
On the downside, Jones points out to 1.4440 as initial target: "We would expect intraday rallies to now remain capped by 1.4640/75 and while below here the risk is that we will see a deeper to 1.4440 then 1.4381/16 (55 day ma uptrend)."
ECOFIN: Dutch Fin Min: Happy With US Stance On Strong Dollar
GOTHENBURG, Sweden -(Dow Jones)- Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos Friday said he was happy with the U.S. authorities' stance in favor of a strong U.S. dollar.
"Of course I am," Bos said to reporters, when asked if he was happy after U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said a strong dollar was in the interest of the U.S. economy.
Bos, who is meeting other European finance ministers and governors of central banks here, also said that the European Union should play a leading role in the fight to preserve the environment and address climate change.
The Netherlands could adopt a carbon tax like France is planning, he also said.
After addressing the issue of the financial sector and the economy Thursday, E.U. finance ministers are to discuss Friday environmental and employment issues for the second day of their meeting.
World Bank Head: 2009 Looks "Difficult",2010 "Highly Uncertain"
ISTANBUL -(Dow Jones)- This year has been "difficult," next year looks "highly uncertain" and more capital may be needed by 2011, the head of the World Bank said Friday.
But large-scale public deployment of financial resources, including by multilateral lenders, has staved off major trouble, Robert Zoellick said at a press conference in Istanbul.
"The danger today is no longer a collapsing economy... but complacency," Zoellick said.
The World Bank, which finances activity in developing nations through bodies such as the International Finance Corporation, has tried to rise to the challenge the global credit crisis has wrought on emerging economies, he said. But more cash will likely be needed, he added.